SATURDAY,  NOVEMBER 15,  2008

UPDATE AT 5:27 P.M. ET:    COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Even as Detroit's Big Three teeter on collapse, United Auto Workers President Ron Gettelfinger said Saturday that workers will not make any more concessions and that getting the automakers back on their feet means figuring out a way to turn around the slumping economy.

COMMENT:  Great sense of timing.


UPDATE AT 2:15 P.M. ET:  From, surprisingly, The New York Times, on Mr. Obama's transition team:  "Among the full roster of about 150 staff members being assigned to government agencies between now and Inauguration Day are dozens of former lobbyists and some who were registered as recently as this year. Many more are executives and partners at firms that pay lobbyists, and former government officials who work as consultants or advisers to those seeking influence."

COMMENT:  More of that change we can believe in.  If things get any worse, the anthem of the new administration will be "The Way We Were." 

UPDATE AT 1:58 P.M. ET:  From Breitbart:  A website launched Friday with the backing of technology industry and Hollywood elite urges people worldwide to help craft a framework for harmony between all religions.  The Charter for Compassion project on the Internet at www.charterforcompassion.org springs from a "wish" granted this year to religious scholar Karen Armstrong at a premier Technology, Entertainment and Design (TED) conference in California.

COMMENT:  When you see the name Karen Armstrong I suggest that you run, not walk, in the other direction.  She is one of the great frauds of our time - a professional America- and Israel-hater, and a flak for the worst elements of Islam.   She apparently suckered some in the tech industry, and, of course, in Hollywood.  (Hollywood can be suckered by a five-year-old.)  If you want the truth about Armstrong, who is a favorite of Bill Moyers (convinced?), go here.

REAL WORLD

Posted at  9:02 a.m. ET

It's easy to get wrapped up in the name game being played about possible cabinet choices, especially with Hillary Clinton's name now in the mix.  But there are more serious matters the president-elect must deal with.  Terror attacks tend to come in the first year of a presidency, or in the months before, and Mr. Obama has been warned, as The Times of London reports:

Barack Obama is being given ominous advice from leaders on both sides of the Atlantic to brace himself for an early assault from terrorists.

General Michael Hayden, director of the CIA, this week acknowledged that there were dangers during a presidential transition when new officials were coming in and getting accustomed to the challenges. But he added that no “real or artificial spike” in intercepted transmissions from terror suspects had been detected.

Reminds us of the continuing threat.  Not only could a new attack cause horrible human damage - the most important fact - but it could devastate an already weakened economy.

Lord West of Spithead, the Home Office Security Minister, spoke recently of a “huge threat”, saying: “There is another great plot building up again and we are monitoring this.”

Intelligence chiefs on both sides of the Atlantic have indicated that such warnings refer more to a general sense of foreboding than fear of an imminent or specific plan.

The fact is that our human intelligence on terror groups remains spotty.  We are depending on technical intelligence, which, you can be sure, will be targeted by leftist groups when the new administration comes in.

"AlQaeda, operating from its safe haven in Pakistan’s tribal areas, remains the most clear and present danger to the safety of the United States,” General Hayden said.

The hunt for al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden “is very much at the top of CIA’s priority list,” he added. “Because of his iconic stature, his death or capture clearly would have a significant impact on the confidence of his followers.”

And...

In Britain, security officials say that there is genuine concern that alQaeda will attempt a “spectacular” in the transition period, but suggest that it may be aimed more at Mr Bush than Mr Obama.

“As far as we know there is nothing from the intelligence world to indicate that anything has changed dramatically in recent months to put us on alert for an attack at the moment,” a source said. The present threat level is “severe”, which is the second-highest alert status. But a senior counterterrorism official suggested last month that this should be regarded as “the severe end of severe."

One thing about the Brit security services - they take these threats seriously, which is difficult in a country whose political and intellectual classes are obsessed with political correctness.

Britain and the US are sharing all intelligence on suspected terrorist activity because of the high risk of a plot involving transatlantic flights. Al-Qaeda is understood still to be obsessed with mounting an attack using passenger airliners.

It worked for them before.  It's logical.

James Lewis, a security expert with the Centre of Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said that al-Qaeda may wish to provoke a reaction from the next US Administration designed to show the rest of the world that “America is still the evil crusader."

Obama is getting briefings on this, as the story says.  It's got to have a sobering effect on his choices for key security positions.  No time for fooling around or naming symbols, like Chuck Hagel.  If we get hit on Obama's watch, there'll be the immediate comparison with President Bush "keeping us safe," and Obama knows it.

November 15, 2008.      Permalink          

RACIAL SENSE

Posted at 8:25 A.M. ET

John McWhorter is one of the most thoughtful African-American scholars writing today.  He has a terrific take on the meaning - the real meaning - of Obama's election to the black community.  Published in Forbes, I hope this is taken seriously:

We have heard much about what the election of Barack Obama as president means for America, but less about what it means for black America specifically, beyond surprise and vague notions of hope.

Very vague notions. 

The issue is not only the emergence of the new but the eclipse of the old. Here are some traits of pre-11/4 black America that are now history.

The studious black teen will no longer be tarred as "thinking he's white."

This has had a devastating effect on the black community, but McWhorter sees change coming.

From now on, however, there is a ready riposte to being tarred as "acting white" for liking school: "Is Barack Obama white?"

It's the perfect smackdown--not even the most hardened black teen will disown the heroism of the first black president, in all of his nerdiness.

Good, good, good.  Other things to go out the window:

The illusion that Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton are black America's leaders is now officially dispelled.

Time to celebrate. 

Potshots that Jackson's tears during Obama's acceptance speech were over his own eclipse are petty: Jackson was surely as touched as the rest of us. However, the fact remains that his most memorable moments of late have been calling Obama "white" for not protesting in Jena, La., and later suggesting that he be separated from his reproductive organs for warmly advising black men to help raise their kids.

And the other one?

This year, there was no routine with Obama seeking Sharpton's "endorsement." Sharpton's initial harrumphs about Obama's black bona fides, along with warnings that he had yet to "make up his mind," were passing news at best.

It was revealed yesterday that Sharpton owes the federal government $500,000 for campaign improprieties.  He'll be kept busy.

The idea that for black people, underdoggism is higher awareness is obsolete.

No matter how successful many blacks are, no matter how many interracial couples there are, no matter how few "firsts" are left, we always have much longer to go than we have come. A shoe still hasn't dropped.

Well, it just did.

A black man is president, and black Americans seem to feel like it really means something. As such, we will expect a sea change in the tone of what is considered the authentic black voice. Pollyanna, no. But it will be positive and constructive--as Obama has been on the topic of race--in the way that anyone would assume of a group that truly seeks progress.

Finally...

Many have supposed that what black America needs was a second revolution in how white people think. Barack Obama's election showed that white people's thoughts weren't so retrograde after all. White people voted with those thoughts--and now, even without a revolution, much of what black America needs to happen will be a reality.

That is very good stuff.  This column did not support Mr. Obama, but, as Americans, we hope good things will happen on his watch.  John McWhorter has named some of them.

November 15, 2008.      Permalink          

FRIDAY,  NOVEMBER 14,  2008

THE HILLARY THING

Posted at 6:55 p.m. ET

Clearly the most intriguing political story of the day is about Hillary Clinton possibly becoming secretary of state.  There is no doubt that this is serious.  No one is denying that it could happen.  Martha Raddatz of ABC has a report.  I stress that this has not been confirmed, but she's a pretty decent reporter:

ABC News' Martha Raddatz reports: President-elect Barack Obama met with Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., Thursday in Chicago to discuss the possibility of the senator becoming secretary of state.

A source with knowledge of the transition process describes the meeting as not a hard offer. Obama is more cautious than that.

He is doing this more elegantly, but a source said Obama took a big step toward Hillary.

Of course he did.  She wasn't flying out to Chicago to chat about old times.  Like international summit conferences, these things are worked out in advance.

He was extremely respectful, saying she was great, and giving her a huge amount of support. He said that he knew how much she cared about health care but said there are other challenges, and wanted to reach out to her about secretary of state.

I've always loved that term, "reach out."  What does that mean?  In this case, it means a blood oath, as noted:

Obama does not want to be seen as being rejected by her, but it is “hers to turn down,” one source put it.

They have an agreement to have another meeting or phone conversation about this very soon.

Of course she could turn him down.  But then she becomes the bad girl of the party, humiliating the new president.  So Obama wins both ways.  If Clinton takes the job, he eliminates a rival power center.  If she rejects him, she's the sore loser who won't help. 

Smart politics on his part.

November 14, 2008.      Permalink          

UPDATE AT 6:15 P.M. ET:  UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - Syria said on Friday it was heartened by U.S. President-elect Barack Obama's plan to pull U.S. combat troops from Iraq within 16 months of taking office since it reflects the desire of Iraq and its neighbors.

COMMENT:  With friends like these...

UPDATE AT 4:37 P.M. ET:  The Dow closed down about 338, wiping out most of yesterday's gains.  As we've said here, this is not about investment.  This is a casino.  You might do better in Vegas - and have more rational people giving you "expert advice."

UPDATE AT 11:33 A.M. ET:  From the Hollywood Reporter:  Conventional wisdom dictates that Hollywood could always shrug off economic downturns because worried consumers spend more on entertainment when times are tough.  Not this time. Everywhere one looks, the entertainment business is in a world of hurt. The downturn is slamming the balance sheets and stocks of major media companies. Banks and hedge funds are cutting or eliminating movie financing, putting projects at studios and independents in peril.

COMMENT:  This may be the greatest contribution the recession makes to the nation.

USAGE NOTE AT 11:01 A.M. ET:  We don't discuss English usage enough here, although I promised to do it when Urgent Agenda first started.  A question arises as to the term "president-elect." Should the "president" part be capitalized or not?  Surprisingly, there is no guidance for this given in the Associated Press Stylebook, or in our standard dictionary for usage, the American Heritage Dictionary.

Generally, titles are capitalized when they're put before the name, but not after.  Thus, it would be President George W. Bush, but George W. Bush, president of the United States.  President-elect, though, is actually a description, not a title.  There is no such office.  Still, I would capitalize the word "president," if before the name," so a phrase might read, "early today as President-elect Barack Obama..."  I think it's jolting to see the word "president" before a name, without capitalization.  So that will be our usage here.  If you differ, please let me know.  Different news organizations are using differing styles.

UPDATE AT 10:44 A.M. ET:  From The Politico:  Former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele shook up the emerging race for chair of the Republican National Committee Thursday, announcing that he would join the contest in an appearance on Fox News' "Hannity & Colmes."  "I want the gig. I'm ready to lead this party," Steele said. "I think we have been kind of wandering and doubting ourselves for far too long.

COMMENT:  Good man, great choice.

 
UPDATE AT 10:40 A.M. ET:  The Dow is down 194.  It was up yesterday.  This has nothing to do with investing.

UPDATE AT 8:30 A.M. ET:   From The New York Times:  WASHINGTON — The prospects of a government rescue for the foundering American automakers dwindled Thursday as Democratic Congressional leaders conceded that they would face potentially insurmountable Republican opposition during a lame-duck session next week.

COMMENT:  This is a train wreck in progress.  Watch it day by day.  We're talking about the bankruptcy of America's most symbolic companies, and they're finding that few Americans love them enough to bail them out.

UPDATE AT 8:10 A.M. ET:  From The Los Angeles Times:   Well, Barack Obama's Senate career didn't last long -- about 46 months.  But long enough to mount a 21-month campaign to move on to bigger digs. The Democratic president-elect announced today he'll resign his Illinois seat in the U.S. Senate on Sunday, just before the Senate is set to resume sessions.  Something about a presidential transition period.

COMMENT:  The ethically challenged governor of Illinois will select a replacement.  Jesse Jackson Jr. wants the job.  Obama would do well to discourage that notion.  Looks like a fix.

JUICY

Posted at 7:57 a.m. ET

The internet is alive with the sound, not of music, but of eyes popping.  Can it be true?  Will President-elect Obama select Hillary Clinton as his secretary of state?  This is the juiciest story to come along in days, as ABC reports:

There's a lot of buzz in DC tonight about the fact that the Obama Transition Team is, according to one knowledgeable source, "very serious" about Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, being under consideration for Secretary of State.

George Stephanopoulos reported Clinton's name being in the mix last week on Good Morning America, but the buzz grew louder today after Clinton was spotted boarding a flight to Chicago.

Her spokesman Philippe Reines would not discuss Clinton's schedule, and of course the Obama Transition Team would not comment.

Now, look, some history:  A lot of women at the Democratic barricades were burned when Obama didn't name Hillary as his v.p. candidate.  Now this story about State is out there, and we wonder whether Obama can risk disappointing that same faction again.  He may have to name her.

She brings instant stature to the job, one Democrat told me. Many world leaders have known her for almost two decades.

"Clinton is the gold standard around the world, " said Chris Lehane, a former spokesman for Vice President Al Gore.

Well, at least the bronze standard.  And there's this:

There are drawbacks, of course. Her husband Bill Clinton's vast and varied international business dealings and relationships, which have put him at odds with her policy positions.

When have truth and corruption been issues in that crowd?

Are you thinking what I'm thinking?  I'm thinking about that line from "The Godfather" - "Keep your friends close and your enemies closer."  Naming Clinton to his cabinet instantly eliminates a rival power center in the Democratic Party. 

We obviously don't know yet if Clinton wants the job.  But apparently she did meet with Obama in Chicago, and I'm sure she knew what it was about before she bought her economy ticket.  However, she'd have to leave the Senate, where there is potential power as majority leader.  She'd have to follow Obama's instructions in foreign policy, which may not interest her.

Obama could do a lot worse.  Clinton, in foreign-policy terms, is a centrist, and her selection would signal "no Carter," which is a good signal to send. 

Stay tuned.  This is what makes politics great.

November 14, 2008.      Permalink          

EXPERTS?

Posted at 7:15 a.m. ET

Harry Truman once said that you can't tell an expert anything.  Then he wouldn't be an expert anymore.

And so it comes to pass that some self-proclaimed "experts" are about to dump on President-elect Obama their wisdom about Iran.  There is no wisdom here.  AP reports:

US President-elect Barack Obama, plotting his strategy on Iran, is getting this advice from a panel of American diplomats and other experts: Don't pile on economic and military threats; it doesn't help.

Suspicious already?  So was I.

"An attack would almost certainly fail" while coercing Iran with economic sanctions has very little chance of success, the experts say in a report to be presented next week at a conference on the future of US-Iran policy.

Why would an attack "almost certainly" fail?  Do these boys understand what 800 planes and a thousand cruise missiles can do?  Should someone give them a slide show?

The Iranian people "have seen the outcome of US-sponsored regime change in Afghanistan and Iraq. They want no part of it," the report said.

I wonder how these "experts" would know that.  Who is their pollster?  John Zogby? We know that the regime is hated by many, and that most Iranians are pro-Western.  That statement doesn't add up.

Far more likely to succeed, said former US ambassadors Thomas Pickering and James F. Dobbins, Columbia University scholar Gary G. Sick and 17 other experts, is to "open the door to direct, unconditional and comprehensive negotiations at the senior diplomatic level."

Oh please.  Oh come on. My friend and real Iran expert Banafsheh Zand-Bonazzi points out that "a senior French government official, recently visiting Washington, urged the new administration to abandon the folly of negotiations with Tehran.  'We've been negotiating with the Iranians since 2003,' said French nuclear advisor Therese Delpech. 'We came to the conclusion that they are not interested at all in negotiating, but in buying time for their military (nuclear) program.'"

And that's a French negotiator speaking.  The French passion for negotiating is as great as their passion for passion.

By the way, Gary Sick was Jimmy Carter's chief White House adviser on Iran.  Gives you confidence, doesn't it?

The "expert" analysis continues:

The report originated from conversations among a number of experts on Iran who were concerned about the course of American diplomacy on Iran, Dobbins said Thursday. "We got together to offer the administration a different approach, one that is focused on communication and with a view to making progress over time on a range of issues," he said.

Oh, I see.  Over time.  And over this same time Iran will build, perfect and maybe use a 20-kiloton monster.  But they wouldn't be rude enough to do that while the experts are talking, would they?  Let's not insult those mullahs.

And...

Richard Parker, a professor at the University of Connecticut, organized the report, which will be presented Tuesday to the National Iranian American Council.

One of those groups that wants us to "understand" the mullahs.  Not people you want in your home on Friday night.

On other fronts, the experts advised giving Iran "a place at the table" in shaping the future of Iraq, Afghanistan and the region.

The United States and Iran support the same government in Iraq and face common enemies in the Taliban and al-Qaida in Afghanistan, the report said.

Yeah, and both Hitler and Roosevelt liked dogs.  It's all the same thing. 

Is this a serious proposal we're looking at?  You can just see how the American people will react to our opening the door to Iranian influence.  Does the phrase "one-term president" interest these "experts"?

Labeled "Myth ..1" in the report is the notion that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad calls the shots on Iran's nuclear and foreign policy.

The ultimate decision-maker is the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, commander in chief of Iran's armed forces, the report said. Despite frequent hostile rhetoric aimed at Israel and the West, "Khamenei's track record reveals a cautious decision maker who acts after consulting advisers holding a range of views, including views sharply critical of Ahmadinejad."

If Mr. Supreme Leader didn't like what Ahmadinejad is saying, he could arrange for the esteemed president to suffer a sudden misfortune.  No arrangements have been made.

I get the feeling that this panel of "experts" had its last meeting on that ride in Disneyland where they play "It's a Small World After All."  They were influenced.

Yuch.

November 14, 2008.      Permalink